LAS VEGAS – Written in almost everything Canelo Alvarez Identical fight over the last several years: He launches an attack on his withering body early in the fight. His opponent, fighting the greatest fight of his life, got the hard fights. Eventually, body shots begin to take their toll, and Alvarez then targets the head.
Finally the referee steps in and drags Alvarez to his defenseless opponent.
On Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, there will be WBA slight offensive champion Dmitry Bivoli trying to retaliate against Alvarez’s equivalent of a puzzle that has only been released by Floyd Mayweather.
Alvarez is now a very superior fighter, and that’s why he left his rotation with contrasting qualities since 2013. He is expected to develop through Bivol. Alvarez is the -500 favorite at BetMGMwith Bivol at +333. Alvarez is losing +200 by KO/TKO/DQ/Technical Decision, and -120 by decision to win.
Bivol +800 is to win the KO/TKO/DQ/Technical decision and win the +700 by the decision.
On the surface, Bivol does not deal with threats. He has not branded a big punch – he has 11 KOs in his 19-0 career – and most of his stops come against minor opposition. He is not a great light weight or unnaturally heavy, and therefore will not be able to use his size against Alvarez.
But Bivol is a conservative fighter, discreet with his punches, and assists against Alvarez. If he doesn’t, Alvarez doesn’t create the logins. Bivol is also slightly awkward in his approach and doesn’t throw punches from conventional angles.
That will take Alvarez a while to get him out. I don’t think there is much chance of an overthrowing Bivoli overturning, because in order to do so, you need to watch Alvarez return and not plow forward like a sting incline steeply.
Alvarez is much better defensive than he was a young fighter, but it’s not wise to take one if he replaces three or four.
Bivol may have to disappoint Alvarez in the first round, but Alvarez is slow and will stick to his plan. The best betting will be to keep the fight in the middle of the ring and try to convert Alvarez and limit his output.
Alvarez’s best serve was to go down the middle. A handful would be fair game for the body as well as the head, but he can be an uppercut silver punch for Alvarez in this fight. Bivol uses great guards, but can get through his fingers and that allows Alvarez to score in the middle with the upper half.
Bivol will try to slow the pace of the fight and Alvarez will try to tie in when he starts to gain momentum.
As a result, I concentrate on Alvarez’s decision. I don’t see Bivolum doing enough offensively to win, especially in Las Vegas, where Alvarez seems to get the benefit of the doubt.
But while Bivol is good, and perhaps also very good, Alvarez is great. So Alvarez’s fight is a disaster, and an error is highly unlikely.
So I’m going to do three games in this fight. Alvarez will set two units in the -120 decision-making process, making $240 in the hope of making $200. One unit in combat at a distance, which is -200. It’s not far from CL. So I will put $200, hoping to add another $100 profit.
And then BetMGM has a promise of a fight. Less than 11 full rounds is 175. Getting 11 rounds full or more is -225. I would put -225 and compete $225 to win $100.
I’m totally in danger of $865 and I hope to win $400. I’ll be a loser if Alvarez achieves a goal, but I’m willing to take the risk as a respectable payout in my favor.
I expect Alvarez to win eight, maybe nine contests, to be comfortable, and I would like to sweat through nothing. But trading in the 11 rounds gives me even more room to breathe a little late in the chance Alvarez gets stoppage.